Merrill Lynch 2011 forecast: Xbox 360 and PS3 win, Wii loses

Before you start flamining each other, heed our words. Put not your trust in analysts nor in the representatives of firms in whom there is no help.

With that said, Merrill Lynch, the firm who said the PS3 won’t do well, now says the PS3 will not do so bad. Let’s go straight to the numbers. Merrill Lynch has a forecast for the fiscal year ending March of 2011. Wow. They obviously employ really good mathematicians, actuarians, statisticians, and market analysts to make such a confident long-term analysis.

Worldwide: Xbox wins, Wii loses

Xbox 360: 39% of the market
PS3: 34% of the market
Wii: 27% of the market

The PS2 currently has 69% of the market. So by 2011, Microsoft and Nintendo will have doubled their shares, or so says Merrill Lynch. By the way, you might recall that Merrill Lynch had glowing words for Nintendo, and you might remember Merrill Lynch’s forecast for the Xbox 360 (in November of 2005 they said the 360 would cost half of the PS3 by the end of 2006).

North America: Xbox 360 wins, Wii loses (“the world’s biggest market” according to Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita)

Microsoft: 50% of the regional market
Sony: 27% of the regional market
Nintendo: 23% of the regional market

Japan: PS3 wins, Xbox 360 loses

PS3: 57% of the national market
Wii: 39% of the national market

This leaves 4% unaccounted for. Merrill Lynch did not mention the Xbox 360.

What do we think? Announcements like this affect business. The future of companies partly depend on investments, and investors really do listen to Merrill Lynch. It is one of the biggest providers of investment advice, wealth management, and asset management services in the world.

We might be tempted to call Merrill Lynch’s forecast an “estimate,” but these have real impact in the financial world. Fiscal announcements can be self-fulfilling. If investment firms say the Wii will not win, then who’ll invest in Nintendo? If Nintendo doesn’t have enough money to address really long-term plans, then yes, Nintendo just might really lose.

What do we think? They can’t be sure. By 2011 there might be another next-gen console out, and that will upset all these numbers. And there’s no clear idea yet about the games that are yet to be released – nor is there any clear understanding of how popular online gameplay will be for each console and how this will affect their fandoms.

What do we think? Buy the console(s) you want and, for the love of gaming, just keep playing! We called our psychic, Le Clairvoyant de la Consoles de Jeux, and he said that in 2011, people have grown tired of electronic gaming, and in that brave new world, the most popular game is pogs. Goes to show nothing is certain. So game on!

Before you start flamining each other, heed our words. Put not your trust in analysts nor in the representatives of firms in whom there is no help.

With that said, Merrill Lynch, the firm who said the PS3 won’t do well, now says the PS3 will not do so bad. Let’s go straight to the numbers. Merrill Lynch has a forecast for the fiscal year ending March of 2011. Wow. They obviously employ really good mathematicians, actuarians, statisticians, and market analysts to make such a confident long-term analysis.

Worldwide: Xbox wins, Wii loses

Xbox 360: 39% of the market
PS3: 34% of the market
Wii: 27% of the market

The PS2 currently has 69% of the market. So by 2011, Microsoft and Nintendo will have doubled their shares, or so says Merrill Lynch. By the way, you might recall that Merrill Lynch had glowing words for Nintendo, and you might remember Merrill Lynch’s forecast for the Xbox 360 (in November of 2005 they said the 360 would cost half of the PS3 by the end of 2006).

North America: Xbox 360 wins, Wii loses (“the world’s biggest market” according to Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita)

Microsoft: 50% of the regional market
Sony: 27% of the regional market
Nintendo: 23% of the regional market

Japan: PS3 wins, Xbox 360 loses

PS3: 57% of the national market
Wii: 39% of the national market

This leaves 4% unaccounted for. Merrill Lynch did not mention the Xbox 360.

What do we think? Announcements like this affect business. The future of companies partly depend on investments, and investors really do listen to Merrill Lynch. It is one of the biggest providers of investment advice, wealth management, and asset management services in the world.

We might be tempted to call Merrill Lynch’s forecast an “estimate,” but these have real impact in the financial world. Fiscal announcements can be self-fulfilling. If investment firms say the Wii will not win, then who’ll invest in Nintendo? If Nintendo doesn’t have enough money to address really long-term plans, then yes, Nintendo just might really lose.

What do we think? They can’t be sure. By 2011 there might be another next-gen console out, and that will upset all these numbers. And there’s no clear idea yet about the games that are yet to be released – nor is there any clear understanding of how popular online gameplay will be for each console and how this will affect their fandoms.

What do we think? Buy the console(s) you want and, for the love of gaming, just keep playing! We called our psychic, Le Clairvoyant de la Consoles de Jeux, and he said that in 2011, people have grown tired of electronic gaming, and in that brave new world, the most popular game is pogs. Goes to show nothing is certain. So game on!