Analyst: GTA 4 delay unlikely, raw sales inaccurate success gauge

Analysts have stepped up the plate now that the hype for Rockstar Games’ Grand Theft Auto 4 (PlayStation 3, Xbox 360) is reaching meteoric proportions. Contradicting Pachter, UBS analyst Ben Schachter believes any delay is very unlikely, while maintaining that raw sales won’t be an exact gauge of GTA IV‘s success. More details after the jump.

With only a few more days before its release, Rockstar North‘s Grand Theft Auto IV is really on every hardcore gamer’s peripheral vision. Of course, that includes gaming analysts. A week after Michael Pachter predicted that the game could be delayed again, UBS analyst Ben Schachter came forward to express faith that GTA 4 will no longer suffer any setback.

Schachter is much more concerned though with how investors will perceive the success of Grand Theft Auto IV (PlayStation 3, Xbox 360). According to him, raw sales alone are not an accurate gauge because next-gen consoles today are not as numerous compared to the PlayStation 2 and Xbox of old.

Instead, Schachter proposes the attach rate technique wherein the actual number of units sold will be divided to the number of owned PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 consoles. It’s a bit mathematical but the bottom line here is that it’s unfair to compare it to past GTA titles.

Schachter estimates that Grand Theft Auto IV will sell six million units in the United States alone and 10.5 million worldwide this year. However, the UBS analyst also believes that in the long run, it won’t help Take-Two Entertainment that much because EA will still be able to purchase Take-Two. More updates as we get them.

Buy: [ GTA IV (PS3) ]
Buy: [ GTA IV (Xbox 360) ]