Analyst: “Left-over PS3s, troubling”; Sony: “Analysis is flawed”
American Technology Research’s analyst, PJ McNealy, has recently stated that he finds the difference between the announced number of shipped PS3s at the CES, to the number of actual sales “troubling”.
In his latest research, McNealy has pointed out this discrepancy in Sony‘s figures, especially since Sony has just announced at the CES that they have shipped 1 million PS3 units to North America before the end of 2006. McNealy, however, believes that the real numbers may be several hundred thousands short, saying that the actual figures may actually be around 500,000 to 600,000 instead of the 1 million which Sony was talking about. He has also note that this difference is “likely to cause investor confusion”.
He also believes that the shipment number that Sony has released may actually include the 200,000 or 300,000 PS3 units which are “in Channel”, or are still in transit, warehouses, or stuck in store shelves or backrooms. This is contrary to Dave Karakker’s statement that the PS3s have all sold out. McNealy also warns that “200k units in the overall life cycle of the consoles is not material, but we believe there is headline risk here”.
As for WHY those units are still in channel, he points to the lack of new games as of the moment, the 600-dollar price tag, the lack of support from the Blu-Ray group, and a “Slow road map for exclusive titles on the PS3 this calendar year”.
Sony, however, has released an official statement regarding McNealy’s analysis.
And we’re starting to sense a catfight here.
Official Sony statement at full article.
American Technology Research’s analyst, PJ McNealy, has recently stated that he finds the difference between the announced number of shipped PS3s at the CES, to the number of actual sales “troubling”.
In his latest research, McNealy has pointed out this discrepancy in Sony‘s figures, especially since Sony has just announced at the CES that they have shipped 1 million PS3 units to North America before the end of 2006. McNealy, however, believes that the real numbers may be several hundred thousands short, saying that the actual figures may actually be around 500,000 to 600,000 instead of the 1 million which Sony was talking about. He has also note that this difference is “likely to cause investor confusion”.
He also believes that the shipment number that Sony has released may actually include the 200,000 or 300,000 PS3 units which are “in Channel”, or are still in transit, warehouses, or stuck in store shelves or backrooms. This is contrary to Dave Karakker’s statement that the PS3s have all sold out. McNealy also warns that “200k units in the overall life cycle of the consoles is not material, but we believe there is headline risk here”.
As for WHY those units are still in channel, he points to the lack of new games as of the moment, the 600-dollar price tag, the lack of support from the Blu-Ray group, and a “Slow road map for exclusive titles on the PS3 this calendar year”.
Sony, however, has released this official statement about the matter:
While we have yet to see this research, it appears Mr. McNealy’s assumptions and conclusions are flawed. This research apparently fails to account for Canada, which, as an industry standard is 8 to 10 percent of North American sales. In addition, NPD does not report all of the Sony customers in North America. Based on the shipped figures we announced on Monday, we were bringing upwards of 170,000 units per week into the territory up until December 31. If this quantity of product sold to retailers was in transit or yet to be put on store shelves, that is no smoking gun. That is the reality of doing business on a massive scale, supplying more than 20,000 retail outlets across the country. To give this perspective, for the PS2, a fourth quarter ‘in-stock’ position would be considered to be 800,000 units.
Do we sense a catfight?