Analyst: The Orange Box, CoD4 to nibble at Halo 3’s sales

Microsoft and Bungie Studios‘ Halo 3 is hands down the standard by which video game sales success is measured these days, but analyst Jesse Divnich of simExchange says that things just might get a little tighter in the FPS market. The Arrival of A-list shooters such as The Orange Box and Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Sony PS3, Microsoft Xbox 360, PC)could weaken Halo 3 sales dramatically in the weeks to come leading to the holidays.

Microsoft and Bungie Studios‘ Halo 3 is hands down the standard by which video game sales success is measured these days, but analyst Jesse Divnich of simExchange says that things just might get a little tighter in the FPS market. The Arrival of A-list shooters such as The Orange Box and Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare could weaken Halo 3 sales dramatically in the weeks to come leading to the holidays.

Divnich also says that this influx of top-caliber games could create an FPS environment in the game industry where “sales cannibalism” could ensue. That is, a lot of players who can’t shell out the big bucks all at once will have to choose between members of the shooting genre.

“The cannibalization theory can be seen as Halo 3 sales expectations declined while expectations for Orange Box increased,” comments Divnich about the growing competition among shooting titles. The analyst continues:

This phenomenon will not only hinder first-person shooter sales this holiday season but will likely play as a barrier to those AAA titles pushed back into Q1 of 2008—as if being delayed wasn’t bad enough on sales.

Inversely proportional to the sales decline of Halo 3, simExchange expects a fast rise from Activision‘s Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare. Expectations of 600,000 to 700,000 copies sold in the initial weeks have been drawn, which just might make the title one of the best-selling cross-platform games of fiscal 2007.

Like The Orange Box, Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare enjoys great quality as well as multiplatform availability across the Sony PlayStation 3, Microsoft Xbox 360, and PC. This status makes the title available to more people who own different game systems. This means hot competition will also happen between shooting games on the PC and the Sony PS3 even if Halo 3 isn’t available for the two platforms.

Buy: [ The Orange Box (Xbox 360) ]
Buy: [ The Orange Box (PS3) ]
Buy: [ The Orange Box (PC) ]