Analysts: UMD on PSP-4000 not surprising, Sony has horrible luck in creating new media
Last August, we reported on this “insider info” pertaining to an alleged PSP-4000, which will not only phase out the PSP-3000, but will also revive the neglected UMD format. Now, even the industry’s foremost analysts are saying they won’t be surprised at all if this turns out to be true. You know what they say: where there’s smoke, there’s sure to be barbecue.
Last August, we reported on this “insider info” pertaining to an alleged PSP-4000, which will not only phase out the PSP-3000, but will also revive the neglected UMD format. Now, even the industry’s foremost analysts are saying they won’t be surprised at all if this turns out to be true. You know what they say: where there’s smoke, there’s sure to be barbecue.
Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities and Jesse Divinich of EEDAR both believe that there might be something to this PSP-4000 rumor. Said Pachter, “I think it is possible and likely that the PSP-4000 will support UMD, and I think that Sony will support whichever formats make it the most money.”
He furthers:
It’s an interesting dilemma. Without question, there is room for packaged products and the benefits of digital-only are probably more offset by foregone sales of UMDs. I think that the next version will likely have both, with a disc drive that uses no power if the user is palying a download game. The question is whether it’s too bulky, but my guess is that they can fit some flash in there, or equip the game with a 16GB memory stick and consumers will be perfectly happy.
On the other hand, Divinich is of the opinion that if Sony were to follows its wants, they would completely drop the UMD format from their line-up once and for all. However, what’s keeping them from completely letting go of the UMD is the fact that there are consumers out there who still want it more than the new download-only format implemented in the PSP Go.
Ultimately, business must meet the demand of the consumers. If the PSP Go fails to latch on as a standard model for the PSP, Sony has no choice but to continue to support the UMD format. If Sony had their way, they would eradicate the UMD standard in favour of digital distribution. Sony’s primary goal with the UMD format was for it to catch on in other media players, unfortunately it didn’t.
He also took note of how “Sony has had horrible luck when it comes to creating media, standards,” making reference to other failed precedents such as Betamax, Sony Dynamic Digital Sound and MiniDisc. According to him, these were all “formats that failed to gain mass popularity, even though they were formats that provided superior technology to the current standard.”
For what it’s worth, Divinich said that the PSP Go is actually “three years ahead of its time, the same way the PS3 was ahead of its time.” Like all those mad geniuses ignored during their lifetime, perhaps? “Regardless of hte success of the PSP Go, ten years from now when the industry is mostly digital, we will look back and single out Sony and its PSP Go as being the first console to push us in the digital direction.”
I think Sony would prefer looking back and seeing all the sales they generated from the PSP Go much more than looking back and seeing how the PSP Go was a mere footnote in digital distribution’s history, regardless of how “important” a footnote it is.
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