Pachter: Guitar Hero 3 sales will slow when Rock Band is released

Activision recently raised its forecasts for the fiscal year, raising its estimate by more than US$ 200 million which prompted Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter to give his own prediction.

Although Pachter predicted earlier that it will win over Rock Band, he adds now that when Rock Band is released, Guitar Hero 3: Legends of Rock will decline a little in sales. More in the full article.

Activision recently raised its forecasts for its third quarter and the fiscal year, raising its estimate by more than US$ 200 million which prompted Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter to give his own prediction.

Pachter earlier predicted that the game will win over Rock Band (PS3, PS2, Xbox 360). He says that it will sell 7.5 million units this year, and adds that when Rock Band is released, Guitar Hero 3: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, Wii, PC) sales will decline to 6.3 million units.

Pachter predicts that the Guitar Hero franchise will earn US$ 550 million for Activision by the end of the fiscal year. He also notes some doubt in the investor’s part for the next fiscal year seeing as their games this year is tough to top.

Pachter remains optimistic though, saying that he expects that the industry will experience a growth of 17% the following year, and core revenues for Activision can grow to up to 20%. He expects more successful sequels to their IPs in the future:

We expect sequels to Spider-Man and Shrek to generate another $80 million or so, and expect the James Bond game to generate another $100 – 150 million. Distribution should account for another $400 million, bringing overall revenues (excluding Guitar Hero and new franchises) to around $1.540 – 1.590 billion.

We expect the three Dreamworks games, Madagascar 2, Kung Fu Panda and Monsters vs. Aliens to generate at least $100 million more than this year’s Bee Movie game, and believe that the two new superhero games (titles unannounced) could generate another $100 – 150 million. Thus, without Guitar Hero, Activision should be in a position to deliver $1.740 – 1.840 billion in revenue.

Via GameDaily