Pachter: “Wii 2” in a few years, PS3 will eventually win by 2011

Game market analyst Michael Pachter is at it again, this time issuing some very interesting responses to SEGA executive Scott Steinberg over the Nintendo Wii’s staying power and what it means for the future of the industry.

Pachter explained the reasons behind Steinberg’s concerns over the future of the fast-rising Nintendo console. “I think that a lot of people consider the Wii a ‘fad,’ and attribute that conclusion to the type of people who have been attracted to the Wii so far,” says the analyst.

He continues that the casual gamers and old people that the Wii brought in are still a puzzle to a lot of developers. This, he says, is “baffling” traditional game developers who have catered to hardcore crowds in the last few generations.

A direction that Nintendo can take to adjust to changing times and stay in the game could be the introduction of HD visuals on a new console. “It’s easy to envision a Wii 2 in a couple of years that runs at full HD, and has both a Wii-mote and an analog controller, so that all games can be ported to it,” Pachter predicts.

And though he says he doesn’t agree with Steinberg’s analysis regarding the Wii, he does share the same opinion about Sony‘s PlayStation 3. “Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap – barely – by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so,” he says.

So what’s it going to take for Sony to beat Nintendo? Pachter agrees with Steinberg that the PS3 will eventually rise as the winner. Pachter says it’s a combination of two things: The success of the Blu-ray format and a price cut that will reduce PS3’s price point to US$ 199 or less.

Game market analyst Michael Pachter is at it again, this time issuing some very interesting responses to SEGA executive Scott Steinberg over the Nintendo Wii’s staying power and what it means for the future of the industry.

Pachter explained the reasons behind Steinberg’s concerns over the future of the fast-rising Nintendo console. “I think that a lot of people consider the Wii a ‘fad,’ and attribute that conclusion to the type of people who have been attracted to the Wii so far,” says the analyst.

He continues that the casual gamers and old people that the Wii brought in are still a puzzle to a lot of developers. This, he says, is “baffling” traditional game developers who have catered to hardcore crowds in the last few generations.

A direction that Nintendo can take to adjust to changing times and stay in the game could be the introduction of HD visuals on a new console. “It’s easy to envision a Wii 2 in a couple of years that runs at full HD, and has both a Wii-mote and an analog controller, so that all games can be ported to it,” Pachter predicts.

And though he says he doesn’t agree with Steinberg’s analysis regarding the Wii, he does share the same opinion about Sony‘s PlayStation 3. “Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap – barely – by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so,” he says.

So what’s it going to take for Sony to beat Nintendo? Pachter agrees with Steinberg that the PS3 will eventually rise as the winner. Pachter says it’s a combination of two things: The success of the Blu-ray format and a price cut that will reduce PS3’s price point to US$ 199 or less.