David Cole: The real console war lies far ahead

It’s David Cole of DFC Intelligence again with a word on the PS3’s chances in the gaming market. This time, he believes that it’s too early to call out any winners or losers yet – not this Christmas, not in 2007 even – in an article he wrote for Businessweek Online.

On the one hand, he writes, Sony has a large and installed base of PS2 owners going for it. They will want to upgrade to next-gen, sooner or later (which, of course, Sony is wooing with the PS3). On another front, he says developers are slowly coming to terms with the challenges of programming for the PS3. David thinks, though, that it will still be some time before the industry regularly punches out titles that fully exploit all that the Cell can offer.

Yet even if the PS3 becomes a best-seller, David doesn’t think this will become PS2 redux. The Xbox 360 and the Nintendo Wii pose stiff competition for the PS3’s debut, and can look forward to increased market share. Microsoft, for one, had had the lead-time from its earlier release of the 360, not to mention a solid list of titles under its Ring of Light. And the Wii? David thinks it’s got “almost nowhere to go but up.” In both cases, they are hoping to lure those PS2 owners wishing to go next-gen away from the PS3 and to their own respective consoles.

It’s increasingly looking like a multiplatform world, and less like the current-gen with a far-and-away PS2 dominance. “More than ever, success in the video game industry is about having a complete package of technology, content, marketing, and distribution savvy.” Both console manufacturers and game publishers alike can determine who wins and who loses in the console war. But this early? It’s still too soon to tell.

It’s David Cole of DFC Intelligence again with a word on the PS3’s chances in the gaming market. This time, he believes that it’s too early to call out any winners or losers yet – not this Christmas, not in 2007 even – in an article he wrote for Businessweek Online.

On the one hand, he writes, Sony has a large and installed base of PS2 owners going for it. They will want to upgrade to next-gen, sooner or later (which, of course, Sony is wooing with the PS3). On another front, he says developers are slowly coming to terms with the challenges of programming for the PS3. David thinks, though, that it will still be some time before the industry regularly punches out titles that fully exploit all that the Cell can offer.

Yet even if the PS3 becomes a best-seller, David doesn’t think this will become PS2 redux. The Xbox 360 and the Nintendo Wii pose stiff competition for the PS3’s debut, and can look forward to increased market share. Microsoft, for one, had had the lead-time from its earlier release of the 360, not to mention a solid list of titles under its Ring of Light. And the Wii? David thinks it’s got “almost nowhere to go but up.” In both cases, they are hoping to lure those PS2 owners wishing to go next-gen away from the PS3 and to their own respective consoles.

It’s increasingly looking like a multiplatform world, and less like the current-gen with a far-and-away PS2 dominance. “More than ever, success in the video game industry is about having a complete package of technology, content, marketing, and distribution savvy.” Both console manufacturers and game publishers alike can determine who wins and who loses in the console war. But this early? It’s still too soon to tell.