Analyst says PS3’s weakness may hurt the industry

Analyst Benjamin A. Schachter of the research firm UBS let loose on some bold predictions on how the console war will look like by 2010 and possible scenarios if the Sony PlayStation 3 continues to post underwhelming sales figures.

Schachter said that overall, the Nintendo Wii should win the world over with a comfortable margin, though not in the utterly dominant fashion exhibited by the first two PlayStations. He says the Wii should sell 51.9 million units, the PS3 will sell around 47.2 million, while the Xbox 360 should lag behind with 38.9 million units sold. All of that happens by 2010.

On a regional basis, the analyst claims that the Xbox 360 will ultimately win the battle in the US, racking up 22 million units sold, while the PS3 will be slightly behind with 21 million. He expects the Wii pace to slow down and end at 19 million by 2010. He believes something similar should happen in Europe where the Xbox 360 will sell 15.5 million, 14 million PS3s will be sold, with the Wii trailing again at 12.5 million.

The Japanese scenario, according to Schachter, will be much different. He expects the Wii to dominate with a total sales of 20.5 million while the closest the PS3 will get to is around 11.7 million. The situation should be grim for the PS3 in the East with just 900,000 units selling.

Perhaps the most interesting analysis made was when he said that “If PS3 continues to disappoint, it could impact the entire group,” and added “we think Sony needs not only to make a price cut, but also buy or develop ‘must have’ exclusive content in order to drive hardware sales.”

He added that the third party investors and developers who banked on Sony’s console will turn out to be the big losers if the sub-par performance of the PS3 goes on. He also said that if first-party games continue to dominate on other consoles, third party developers just might get scared off the playing field, leaving a vacuum in finance and competition. You can follow the read URL to see the rest of Schachter’s arguments and predictions.

Analyst Benjamin A. Schachter of the research firm UBS let loose on some bold predictions on how the console war will look like by 2010 and possible scenarios if the Sony PlayStation 3 continues to post underwhelming sales figures.

Schachter said that overall, the Nintendo Wii should win the world over with a comfortable margin, though not in the utterly dominant fashion exhibited by the first two PlayStations. He says the Wii should sell 51.9 million units, the PS3 will sell around 47.2 million, while the Xbox 360 should lag behind with 38.9 million units sold. All of that happens by 2010.

On a regional basis, the analyst claims that the Xbox 360 will ultimately win the battle in the US, racking up 22 million units sold, while the PS3 will be slightly behind with 21 million. He expects the Wii pace to slow down and end at 19 million by 2010. He believes something similar should happen in Europe where the Xbox 360 will sell 15.5 million, 14 million PS3s will be sold, with the Wii trailing again at 12.5 million.

The Japanese scenario, according to Schachter, will be much different. He expects the Wii to dominate with a total sales of 20.5 million while the closest the PS3 will get to is around 11.7 million. The situation should be grim for the PS3 in the East with just 900,000 units selling.

Perhaps the most interesting analysis made was when he said that “If PS3 continues to disappoint, it could impact the entire group,” and added “we think Sony needs not only to make a price cut, but also buy or develop ‘must have’ exclusive content in order to drive hardware sales.”

He added that the third party investors and developers who banked on Sony’s console will turn out to be the big losers if the sub-par performance of the PS3 goes on. He also said that if first-party games continue to dominate on other consoles, third party developers just might get scared off the playing field, leaving a vacuum in finance and competition. You can follow the read URL to see the rest of Schachter’s arguments and predictions.