Analysts Downgrade Predictions on the PS3

Gamers wouldn’t give too much thought to economics. That’s what economic analysts are for. Those same economic analysts can also be trusted to toss cold water on hot expectations. (Hey, we hate party-poopers, too.)

Wedbush Morgan Securities, one of the largest private, independent brokerage firms in United States (according to their website), downgraded their predictions for PS3 sales in 2006 from 3 million to about 2.3 million. What they had to say about this downgrading was that “sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.”

In addition, WMS downgraded PSP sales predictions from 8.5 million units to 7.4 million, while expecting a surge in DS sales “from 6.5 million to 8 million.” (Honestly, this writer wonders, where in heck do they come up with these numbers? They never taught us this in intermediate economics in graduate school).

What’s rotten in Denmark, as Shakespeare would say, is that the same Wedbush Morgan Securities analysis team said back in May that “We expect the dominant console at the end of the next cycle to be the Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3), primarily due to our assessment that Sony will win the high definition DVD format war (through Blu-Ray).”

Granted, they also said that the Xbox 360 would enjoy a “first mover advantage” of two years – which means that because they were the first of the next-gens, the 360 should enjoy some commanding sales for a couple of years or so. And downgrading initial sales for 2006 still fits within the more positive May predictions that WMS made. Besides, even Sony itself targets 2 million in 2006.

We just wish they made more sense when they report this kind of data – like say “Would you please explain, WMS, why you’ve downgraded your sales predictions for this-and-this platform, or such-and-such game? And why is it that you always tend to report contradictory data? And, while we’re at it, do you guys even play video games in your off time?”

Heck, we just wish the console was out already. Forget the predictions – let the gamer market decide the results. Isn’t that what economics is about, anyway?

Gamers wouldn’t give too much thought to economics. That’s what economic analysts are for. Those same economic analysts can also be trusted to toss cold water on hot expectations. (Hey, we hate party-poopers, too.)

Wedbush Morgan Securities, one of the largest private, independent brokerage firms in United States (according to their website), downgraded their predictions for PS3 sales in 2006 from 3 million to about 2.3 million. What they had to say about this downgrading was that “sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.”

In addition, WMS downgraded PSP sales predictions from 8.5 million units to 7.4 million, while expecting a surge in DS sales “from 6.5 million to 8 million.” (Honestly, this writer wonders, where in heck do they come up with these numbers? They never taught us this in intermediate economics in graduate school).

What’s rotten in Denmark, as Shakespeare would say, is that the same Wedbush Morgan Securities analysis team said back in May that “We expect the dominant console at the end of the next cycle to be the Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3), primarily due to our assessment that Sony will win the high definition DVD format war (through Blu-Ray).”

Granted, they also said that the Xbox 360 would enjoy a “first mover advantage” of two years – which means that because they were the first of the next-gens, the 360 should enjoy some commanding sales for a couple of years or so. And downgrading initial sales for 2006 still fits within the more positive May predictions that WMS made. Besides, even Sony itself targets 2 million in 2006.

We just wish they made more sense when they report this kind of data – like say “Would you please explain, WMS, why you’ve downgraded your sales predictions for this-and-this platform, or such-and-such game? And why is it that you always tend to report contradictory data? And, while we’re at it, do you guys even play video games in your off time?”

Heck, we just wish the console was out already. Forget the predictions – let the gamer market decide the results. Isn’t that what economics is about, anyway?