Divnich: the fad of music games have peaked, can only go down from here

Analyst Jesse Divnich is making yet another bold claim, saying that music games like Guitar Hero have reached their peak in popularity and can only go down from here on out.

More Divnich wisdom in the full article.

Analyst Jesse Divnich is making yet another bold claim, saying that music games (Guitar Hero and Rock Band specifically) have reached their peak in popularity and can only go down from here on out.

Divnich’s claim is based on the failure of Guitar Hero World Tour (360, PS3, Wii) to meet sales expectations. Although he cites that the problem was the shortage of the Band Kit SKU, he claims that sales would have been down 40% from last year even if supplies were sufficient.

He furthers that the popularity of music games may have decreased because of the huge amount of triple A titles that came out last month, or that they only got to be so popular because it was part of a nationwide fad:

Understand, however, that “fad” is not necessarily a negative term. Fads can last for several years, and while they seem short-lived in comparison to the time we spend on this planet, they are considerably lengthy by video game standards.

Did he just describe the Wii? Kidding. At any rate, even though he feels the popularity of music games have reached it’s peak, it’s still going to be around for a long, long time:

Dance Dance Revolution is a good example, as it has been around for over 10 years, and it still remains somewhat popular today. However, it is not nearly as popular as it was five to seven years ago. I believe that instrument/singing games are following a similar course, but on a bigger scale.

That being said, I do believe the music & rhythm category is definitely here to stay, and it will always have a large and loyal market base. I believe, however, we may have seen a peak in sales from the category — at least, until, the next big craze sweeps America, whatever that may be.

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Related Articles:

• Peripheral FAIL: complaints over Guitar Hero World Tour instruments go rampant
• Guitar Hero World Tour not in NPD October top 10, WHY?

Via Gamasutra